Polls, Perception, and The Democratic Convention.
The Democratic National Convention begins today, and the latest poll numbers are being spun by the media as proof that Hillary supporters are not on board with Obama. How much weight do you think these polls really carry?
From where I sit…The media (not Hillary or Hillary supporters) are responsible for any real or imaginary riff in the Democratic Party. In a nutshell, it goes like this – Build her up, knock her down, and then suggest she bail-out before all the votes are counted. The trouble is, media manipulation does affect actual outcomes, and the Republicans are champions at media manipulation. A perfect example is the Bush administration, and how they learned very quickly, that the media couldn’t change lies into truth, but they could change lies into the perception of truth. Unfortunately for democracy, perception trumps truth every time. So, not surprisingly, the McCain campaign is using all the latest media hoopla to their benefit. Will it work? What do you think? Here is the latest from around the web.
From The Swamp…
At the start of the Democratic convention, a new national poll portrays a dead heat between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.
Both draw the support of 47 percent of those surveyed by CNN and Opinion Research Corp., the first survey reported since Obama tapped his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, over the weekend.
This represents a slip for Obama since the last CNN Opinion Research poll last month – when Obama pulled 51 percent to McCain’s 44 percent. It mirrors what other polls are finding.
“This looks like a step backward for Obama,” CNN Polling Director Keating Holland says. “Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain.”
Part of Obama’s problem may lie with Hillary Clinton supporters. Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters, registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee, are now backing Obama. That’s down from 75 percent in the end of June, CNN reports. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they’ll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.
From USA Today…
Fewer than half of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s supporters in the presidential primaries say they definitely will vote for Barack Obama in November, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, evidence of a formidable challenge facing Democrats as their national convention opens here today.
In the survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, 47% of Clinton supporters say they are solidly behind Obama, and 23% say they support him but may change their minds before the election.
Thirty percent say they will vote for Republican John McCain, someone else or no one at all.
From Campaign Diaries…
As the reality that Hillary will not be the VP sets in, some Clinton supporters who were on board might temporarily withhold their support from Obama. That might explain why CNN’s poll (taken after Biden’s pick was announced) finds such a drop in the support Obama receives. How temporary those tensions are will be crucial to determining the results of the November election – and things appear to be getting worse.
The convention was meant to showcase the reconciliation between Obama and the Clintons. But Politico now reports that the negotiations between the Obama and Clinton worlds over the past few days has taken a bad turn. Associates of the two camps are voicing bitter complaints about the other’s sense of entitlement.
From Daily Kos – An Open Letter To The Democratic National Convention…
“Today” is what matters for action, “tomorrow” is endless possibilities. “Yesterday” is simply done.
Nothing we do can change the past.
EVERYTHING we do can change the future…for good or ill! And that is an incredible responsibility placed upon us both individually and collectively by whatever higher power you may believe in.
Today the eyes of the nation are on you and the convention. We have been fed this image of hysteria and venom filled riots on the convention floor and throughout the streets of Denver by the media. We wait for the chaos with all the eagerness of a NASCAR fan seated on his couch awaiting a wreck. DENY US THIS PERVERSE PLEASURE!
Take a moment before the start of this historic event and ask yourself, “What do I want my Grandchildren to be taught happened here?” And then begin the first day of the Democratic Convention and the rest of your life.
Also See:
Huffington Post – What Obama Needs To Do In Denver
The Moderate Voice
TPM Election Central
Let me know what you think about this in comments.
